Netanyahu Poised to Return As Israel's PM

Less than four years after Israel pulled out of Gaza after 38 years of occupation, the Jewish state's thorny relationship with the tiny coastal enclave is again at the heart of parliamentary polls.

Gaza dominated the last Israeli vote in March 2006, with a brand new centrist party sweeping to power on the back of support for a unilateral withdrawal from the Palestinian territory.

In the latest poll, taking place less than three weeks after the end of Israel's deadliest offensive on the Gaza Strip, widespread fears over coastal enclave are set to bring the right back to power.

Tuesday's vote has brought security issues once again on to centre stage, with all the main parties haggling over the results of the 22-day blitz on Gaza which killed more than 1,300 people.

"The elections for the next Knesset which were supposed to revolve mainly around the economic crisis, Israeli political culture and corruption -- alongside security -- have now been turned into a referendum on the results of the operation in Gaza," wrote the Maariv daily.

For Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, the fact that many Israelis were "frustrated and disappointed" over the early end to the offensive launched on December 27 was the ace in the hole, he said.

Central to Likud's campaign is a televised broadcast from 2005 in which Netanyahu condemns Israel's Gaza pullout and warns of the risk of rockets raining down on the southern cities of Ashdod and Ashkelon.

A final poll taken for Channel 10 on Friday, before a moratorium on surveys took effect, found that Likud's lead over Kadima had fallen to only two seats. The Dialog poll gave Likud 27 seats, Kadima 25, Israel Beiteinu 19 and Labor 14.

For Labour, headed by Defense Minister Ehud Barak whose popularity ratings surged throughout the military offensive, the main focus was to "capitalize on the success of the army and say the operation showed it has learned its lesson from the 2006 war" in

Lebanon, he said.

Even Kadima under Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, whom pundits describe as a "political casualty" of the war, is touting the campaign as a resounding success and proof the party does not pussyfoot around in dealing with Hamas.

The biggest winner so far, however, has been the ultra-right

Yisrael Beitenu party which has said the government stopped the war too soon and should have continued until Hamas was toppled.

The party, led by Avigdor Lieberman who has been slammed as racist for his vitriolic attacks on Palestinians living in 1948 territories, has seen its stock rise strongly in the polls and looks set to become the third largest party in parliament.

Although opinion polls show a definite hardening of public opinion in the wake of the Gaza blitz, the offensive has not altered the likely outcome of the elections -- with Netanyahu still the clear frontrunner.

With Tuesday's race so close and with both Netanyahu and Livni claiming that they want to lead a "wide national-unity government," attention turned to whom President Shimon Peres will call upon to form a coalition. According to Basic Law: The President, "following elections to the Knesset, the president consults with all the elected parliamentary factions and then officially assigns the task of forming a new government to the head of the faction with the best chances of forming a government."

Three factors that presidents have traditionally taken into account when assigning the task of forming a government were which faction won the most seats, whether the Right or Left bloc was larger, and which leader received the most recommendations from MKs during the president's consultations.

A survey of the factions over the weekend found that the Likud had the backing of its own MKs and those of Shas, Habayit Hayehudi, the National Union and most likely United Torah Judaism.

The only lawmakers certain to back Livni will be her own party's MKs and those of Meretz.

Israel Beiteinu MK David Rotem, who is close to party chairman Avigdor Lieberman, said his faction would recommend that either Netanyahu or Lieberman himself form the next government.

Labor MKs said that while no decision had been made, when Livni tried to form a coalition in October, they recommended to Peres that Labor chairman Ehud Barak form a government and not Livni.

Livni will not be able to count on the support of the three Arab factions, whose MKs are still upset at her role in Operation Cast Lead and for saying in December that in the event of the formation of a Palestinian state, the national aspirations of Israeli Arabs "lie elsewhere."

"What Livni said about us is worse than Lieberman," United Arab List-Ta'al MK Ahmed Tibi said on Saturday night. "That's why we won't recommend to Peres that Livni form a government."

"If Livni receives a single vote more than Netanyahu, everything will start anew," a Kadima source said.

Meanwhile, Shas's spiritual leader, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, sharpened his attack on Israel Beiteinu on Saturday, saying that those who vote for Lieberman's party "support the devil."