Lieberman's Bloc to Decide the Next Israeli PM

With a clear advantage to the rightist bloc in Israel's national elections Tuesday, Benjamin Netanyahu could well end up as the next Israeli prime minister, regardless of whether his Likud party won the most votes or came second to centrist Kadima and Tzipi Livni.

Tens of thousands of left-wing voters who recently decided to vote for Kadima instead of Labor or Meretz woke up this morning to hear that Tzipi Livni is vigorously courting far-right leader Avigdor Lieberman.

Without Lieberman, Livni has no government. Even with the Yisrael Beiteinu chairman, Livni's ability to form a government is in great doubt.

Livni beat Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, which had been leading in the polls until the last minute. The election had boiled down to Tzipi vs. Bibi, and the public decided in favor of Livni. Livni's victory was achieved by stomping the left-wing camp, including Labor and Meretz. But even the right-wing bloc, which exit polls put at 67 Knesset seats, has shriveled.

Late Tuesday night, Netanyahu began contacts with several right-wing parties, including Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu. Lieberman refused to endorse either Livni or Netanyahu, saying rather that his party would be open to hearing from all factions involved in forming of the next coalition, but that his party would never give up its core principles.

"We truly hope that one of the dramatic changes that will be in the next government will be a change in the electoral system," Lieberman said following the exit polls which predicted Livni the winner of the election. "We will be open to hearing what others say about this topic."

"We've turned into a significant party, the third largest in Israel," Lieberman said. "It's true that Tzipi Livni won a surprise victory. But what is more important is that the right-wing camp won a clear majority... We want a right-wing government. That's our wish and we don't hide it."

"We have a way and principles, and we don't plan on giving them up," Lieberman said, adding that the most important thing on his agenda was that the new government be decisive against terror.

In what may prove a twist for coalition talks as ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas move into an advanced stage, Lieberman firmly stated that his party would never join a government which permitted Hamas to rule the Gaza Strip.

"We will not agree either directly or indirectly to [Hamas staying] in power," the Israel Beiteinu leader said. "It doesn't matter which government is established." "Our first goal is clear, to destroy Hamas, to take it down. Whoever wants to see us as a partner in the government must change their policies," he concluded.

Livni greeted hundreds of party supporters in Tel Aviv and called on her chief rival, Netanyahu, to form a national unity government with her as premier. "Before the elections I offered you to join a national unity government led by me to take on the challenges facing the State of Israel. You declined and said the people must choose. Today the people have chosen – Kadima," Livni said.

"All that is left to do is to respect that vote, and to do what is right at this hour and join a national unity government led by (Kadima), that would be founded on the large parties in Israel from both Kadima's left and its right.

Immediately prior to Livni's speech Netanyahu delivered his own speech. "The question is not what the polls say, but what the reality does. In the outgoing Knesset, if you recall, the national camp only had 50 mandates, and today it has won an absolute majority," said Netanyahu.

The Likud currently has 12 seats in the Knesset, and is now expected to win 28 – more than doubling its power.

Livni will argue that she should be assigned the task of forming a government because her party is the leading party, while Netanyahu will argue that he is leading the "national" camp that won the majority of votes (on the assumption that Yisrael Beiteinu is indeed part of this bloc).

By law, the president must consult with all the parties as to who they prefer as prime minister, and whoever is recommended by more Knesset members is given the nod. Hence if the religious and rightist parties all recommend Netanyahu, he would get first crack at forming a government.

In terms of blocs, all three Israeli TV exit polls predicted a rightist bloc of 63 or 64 seats out in the 120-strong Knesset, compared to 57 or 56 for the leftist bloc. And of the leftist bloc, 9 or 10 seats belong to the Arab parties - some of which have already announced that they do not intend to recommend either Netanyahu or Livni for prime minister.

Netanyahu is set to meet with Lieberman on Wednesday to commence negotiations for the formation of a right-wing bloc that will block Kadima, Likud sources said.

At Labor Party headquarters, in contrast, the atmosphere was one of unrelieved gloom: The party had been fighting desperately to hang onto third place, and it apparently lost the battle. Before the vote, party chairman Ehud Barak had been angling for the post of defense minister under either Netanyahu or Livni. But Labor officials said Tuesday night that the party's poor showing made it virtually impossible for it to join a Netanyahu government.