Consultations Begin Thursday; 15-10-5 Formula Steadfast?

In his first attempt, Hariri spent more than 70 days in consultations and vacations but failed to form a national unity government.

This time Hariri, who returns Thursday from his second country, Saudi Arabia, seems to be willing to take as much time as needed, even a year if necessary to form Lebanon’s Cabinet.

The Pan-Arab daily al-Hayat has said that Hariri was preparing to launch ever-wider round of parliamentary consultations which are unparalleled in the history of government formations in Lebanon, given that they grant blocs longer time than the traditional period for hearing their demands.

“Hariri will put parliamentary consultations back on track, but this time the parliamentary majority leader intends to engage in a meaningful, lengthy dialogue rather than negotiation or debate,” the pro-March 14 website Naharnet said on Wednesday.

Hariri’s first attempt to form a Cabinet was characterized by accusations to Free Patriotic Movement MP Michel Aoun of obstructing the effort. Hariri’s alleged problem with Aoun was Telecommunications Minister Jibran Bassil. The PM-designate refused to give whom he called, losers in parliamentary elections, any portfolio. As Hariri and his March 14 bloc’s move was unconstitutional, he sough to keep Bassil from the

Telecommunications ministry and gave him a Minister of State portfolio in the Cabinet line up which he presented to President Michel Sleiman, and eventually rejected by the opposition.

According to analysts, the problem is neither Aoun nor Bassil but the Saudi-Syrian rapprochement that has stopped at some point, and the strained Iraq-Syrian ties that came out of the blue to put pressure on Syria with regards to its positions on Iran, the resistance in Lebanon and Palestine among other issues including ties with Riyadh.

“The time of disharmony between Speaker Nabih Berri and the Saudi and US administrations reached its top level when Ambassadors Abdul Aziz Khoja and Jeffrey Feltman were directly running the Lebanese dossier. Berri was more relaxed in the period of time extending from the Doha agreement and the recent parliamentary elections. However, everything returned to square one after Khoja and Feltman returned from their vacations,” an MP in Speaker Berri’s parliamentary bloc told Al-Akhbar newspaper on Wednesday.

Hariri’s first line up has resulted in cold ties with Speaker Nabih Berri as the PM-designate did not consult with the opposition in this regard.

“In his line up, Hariri went even further than Feltman’s ambitions; a direct confrontation with Berri,” the MP added.

Meanwhile, sources close to Hariri told Assafir daily that the PM-designate rules out seeking a formula to replace the 15-10-5 formula adding that if it were impossible to form a Cabinet based on it, then a Cabinet of technocrats could be taken into consideration.

US Ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Sisson, stressed what she called the importance of a Cabinet of technocrats in Lebanon. According to Al-Akhbar, when Sisson visited Hariri’s headquarters recently, she said that such a Cabinet can break the political inaction on the one hand and contribute in facing the evil of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

For his part, MP Walid Jumblatt said that he will try with Speaker Berri “and others” to find a formula to come out of the current crisis. He told Assafir newspaper that he will make a few suggestions to Hariri when the time is right and stressed the importance of the 15-10-5 formula. Jumblatt agreed that the problem of forming the Cabinet was not internal and described ‘using internal excuses’ as illogical.